Friday 16 Nov 2018

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Hurricane Florence 2 PM Friday Update

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 61A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

…FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE…CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Bogue Inlet North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* Bogue Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.4 West. Florence is now moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina today, and across extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly over water. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight. Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (280 km). A wind gust to 66 mph (106 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean Service station in Wrightsville Beach, and a 75 mph (121 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherflow site just north of Cape Fear at Federal Point. Farther inland across North Carolina, a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently at the Fayetteville airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 968 mb (28.58 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground…

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC…7-11 ft, with locally higher amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC…6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC…4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC…4-6 ft
Salvo NC to Duck NC…2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas…

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina…an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the hurricane warning area near the coast in extreme southeastern Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina today.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

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